The OQTF, one of the major French concerns

The OQTF (the obligation to leave French territory). These four magic letters are becoming the alpha and omega of French politics. Everything — absolutely everything — seems to revolve around the government’s ability to implement as many of these orders as possible as an outward sign of governmental success. When Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau took over from Gerald Darmanin, the need to boost OQTF figures was at the heart of this handover between two ministers whose political and symbolic competition was to obtain consular passes from the countries exporting illegal immigrants to France.

OQTFs have not only shaped the internal political debate between radicals, who want to implement as many as possible — a serious indicator of the fight against illegal immigration — and the tolerant, who want to manage them with a certain degree of flexibility and realism. They have also had a major impact on France’s diplomatic relations with the countries of the Maghreb, where a large proportion of the illegal immigrants to be expelled seem to originate.

Take President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to Morocco last week, for instance. People in Rabat were raving about the scale of the investments undertaken between the two countries and the warmth of this moment of reunion after a long time of sulking. In Paris, meanwhile, the sole subject of concern animating the debates was whether Macron and Retailleau had succeeded in convincing the Moroccan authorities to issue more consular passes so that these OQTFs could be implemented in bulk.

They have had a major impact on relations with the countries of the Maghreb, where a large proportion of the illegal immigrants to be expelled seem to originate

Mustapha Tossa

The same goes for Algeria. The vision and the stakes seem to be focused on the migration issue. At the heart of the recurrent diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers, France regularly returns to the need to cancel the famous 1968 agreement that regulates Algerian immigration to France, giving it substantial advantages. Moreover, the barometer of consular passes seems to be the only indicator of the health or deterioration of relations between the two countries. When tension dominates the Paris-Algiers axis, the volume of consular passes issued by Algeria melts like snow in the sun. The messages are then understood by both sides.

The migration issue has dominated the French political debate for years. It is so present and so massive that the far right, surfing on what looks like French impotence on the issue, has managed to achieve great electoral successes, as shown by the results of the recent European and legislative elections. And for Macron, if he does not want to be in a position to hand over the keys to the Elysee Palace to Marine Le Pen in 2027, he must be able to show a positive and engaging record in the fight against illegal immigration, which is currently presented, rightly or wrongly, as the major obsession of the French populace.

In fact, the issue is so pressing in the political and media debate that it is impossible to imagine an appearance by Retailleau without him being questioned about the progress made with these notorious OQTFs. And what has really inflamed the debate is the fact that some acts of violence or terrorism have been committed by people subject to OQTF orders, whose presence in France loudly betrays the inability of the French authorities to apply the rules and laws they enact for the proper management of migratory flows.

These OQTFs will certainly remain at the heart of France’s diplomatic approach to the countries that are accused of administrative obstruction. The visa weapon used in Darmanin’s time has shown its limits and the boomerang effect on France’s image in the region. The question now is what the Barnier government — with Retailleau in residence at Place Beauvau — will be able to use as a means of pressure and seduction to convince reluctant countries to grant more consular passes and drastically reduce the number of illegal immigrants in France.

For many observers, the state of the major political relationship between the government and the governing parties will depend on this policy. Failure would mean an even more meteoric rise for the far right. Even relative success would mean its drop and even its regression in terms of public opinion.

• Mustapha Tossa is a Franco-Moroccan journalist. In addition to having participated in the launch of the Arabic service of Radio France Internationale, he has notably worked for Monte Carlo Doualiya, TV5Monde and France 24.